The new HFP chat thread – Tuesday 14th April

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• Baji Nahid says:

  14 Apr14 April 02:50

  Booked flights for £132 return to NYC for the end of May. Now all this virus has kicked up and rendered my trip useless as it now got cancelled. Unfortunately I cannot get Virgin Atlantic (who ticketed the itinerary) to move the dates for me unless I pay extra (wanted to move it to august) and since the ticket was bought through an OTA they also will charge extra for a new date.

  What a mess.

  • Lady London says:

    14 Apr14 April 20:16

    If you can I would take the refund. Ask credit card co under s75 or chargeback

    NYC is always reasonably priced due to competition, hopefully that will relatively be the case once travel starts again.

    The state of Virgin is one reason for suggesting this if they are messing you around about your replacement date.

• Aeronaut says:

  14 Apr14 April 03:03

  OK, so who here is still confidently operating on the basis that things are going to spring ‘back to normal’ in a couple of months?

  • ChrisWKR says:

    14 Apr14 April 04:13

    Not me, that’s not possible until we get herd immunity or a vaccine

    • Alan says:

      14 Apr14 April 11:50

      ..or an effective treatment

      • ChrisWKR says:

        14 Apr14 April 19:13

        Fair point.

  • Miles Thomas says:

    14 Apr14 April 04:22

    Things are not going to get back to ‘normal’ till we get a vaccine who is at the very least 18 months away.
    Can’t see any proper commercial travel till then.
    By that time a great many airlines will be history.

    • Roy says:

      14 Apr14 April 11:00

      The team at Oxford led by Prof. Sarah Gilbert are saying their vaccine is due to start clinical trials in two weeks and could be ready by September!

      • Alan says:

        14 Apr14 April 11:52

        …but it will take a considerable amount of time to get the billion doses they are saying that they will need – and that is assuming that the vaccine passes the trial/is effective.

        • Roy says:

          14 Apr14 April 12:08

          Manufacturing is indeed going to be the challenge, particularly for countries (like the UK) that don’t have any manufacturing facilities of their own.

        • Rob says:

          14 Apr14 April 12:43

          And you are taking a risk, unless this vaccine is effectively a version of the current flu vaccine, which seems unlikely. Of course, it’s a risk you will probably take given that the alternative is, erm, never leaving your house again.

      • Lady London says:

        14 Apr14 April 19:54

        Are you going to test it first then?

  • Nick_C says:

    14 Apr14 April 06:10

    Nope. I think people planning holidays later this year are deluded. Can’t see me travelling abroad in the next couple of years.

    We may never get a vaccine.

    I think quarantine for people travelling internationally will be the new normal, ruling out all but essential travel.

    And we don’t need a national airline.

    • Tim M says:

      14 Apr14 April 07:03

      With such a great global effort going into developing a vaccine, I am confident one will be forthcoming but it could be another 18 months before it is available widely. E.g. my GP recommends the annual flu vaccine for everyone but the NHS will only pay for it for the elderly. Sectors of the population are bound to be prioritised.

      We may get an antibody test and the combination of it and vaccinations may lead to a certificate of health for travel, though it would have to be electronic to reduce abuse and the IT systems put in place in origin & destination countries. This could indeed take years.

      “Herd immunity” only works when you stay in your own herd. An asymptomatic carrier could start an outbreak in a country without herd immunity, e.g. one in which test, contact trace and Isolate had been used, according to WHO guidelines, to control the disease. Quarantine of incoming travellers would in such cases be the only approach, as is happening now in China.

      I think there is a need for a national carrier and only a national carrier – i.e. re-nationalise BA – to protect routes of communication strategic to UK interests without being subject to market cycles, fickle consumers, and future pandemics.

      There is nothing wrong with planning future holidays. Indeed with a positive mental distraction activity from the grim news and home confinement. We just have to be prepared for the high risk of cancellation or not being ‘qualified’ to travel.

      I have three trips booked for October, January and March and I will be booking three more for one year later just as soon as the individual holiday elements are on sale unless there is good reason and new information not to do so.

      • J says:

        14 Apr14 April 10:38

        Germany had been a leader on pushing for an immunity certificate scheme. Yesterday, they announced they wouldn’t do it, partly due to the moral dilema of rewarding those who were least careful (eg. those who boast of visiting hospitals shaking hands with infected patients). This could just be a temporary denial to discourage that sort of behaviour though.

        • The Savage Squirrel says:

          14 Apr14 April 12:56

          Yes, a wise move given the law of unintended consequences. Do you really want to strongly incentivise your entire population to go and catch the virus…

        • Lady London says:

          14 Apr14 April 20:09

          France is looking at opening schools and creches in a program from 15th May. Children being a vector everyone will be rapidly infected.

          Herd immunity and the extent of any immunity is simply not proven. This virus has a new way of working. We’re missing something about it. So vaccines have not worked for CV in cats and won’t work in humans till we work out what mechanisms is it using.

          I think the way to come off lockdown is workers under 50 first. Then 2.5-3 weeks later people under 65. Over 65’s in self isolation for at least 12 weeks from the first day workers go back. Review weekly and withdraw, extend or adjust according to ICU and general hospital beds available.

        • ChrisWKR says:

          14 Apr14 April 20:25

          High risk people need to hide for a lot longer than that – try 18 months, IMV.

          Because they only need to be the one to contract the virus, to die a few days later – and ventilators etc won’t really help them, they are just weak.

          Poor old Tim Brooke-Taylor, nice guy & very funny – carried off by a very mild virus, but one his body was unprepared for and he was old & weak.

        • J says:

          15 Apr15 April 10:17

          @Lady London. Just wondering where you got your information that opening schools would have this effect? Most of what I’ve read has suggested a negligible impact. Eg https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext

      • Lady London says:

        14 Apr14 April 20:20

        I think an air force and other defence forces are more important to the country than a civilian airline.

        ‘Defence’ technology is luckily a speciality of the Uk.

    • TripRep says:

      14 Apr14 April 07:41

      Nick C – inclined to agree. Especially if reports of reinfection become more common. Asia looking like they are experiencing a 2nd wave almost as soon as they relaxed controls.

      DJT want’s to reopen in a couple of weeks, more delusional ranting a his propaganda press conference last night.

      I’ve got trips to Florida in November and Maldives in March.

      Don’t expect to go on the first and v doubtful about the 2nd.

      Take care man

      • Paul irving says:

        14 Apr14 April 08:34

        If you are going to the conrad Hilton, I created. Video review of our trip last December. https://youtu.be/OenkqG33zLk

        • TripRep says:

          14 Apr14 April 14:08

          Thanks Paul, that is a terrific video, my wife just watched it with me, brought back great memories, much needed to uplift our mood.

          Glad you loved the place, I hope my previous reviews were useful & helped you plan your trip.

          I haven’t made my mind up where we are staying yet or for how long, just got the outbound booked in CW atm. Considering the Waldorf for 10 nights or maybe the Conrad for 15 nights. The return flight is likely to be via Doha or Dubai so should be availability for either.

    • Spaghetti Town says:

      14 Apr14 April 10:20

      wow. I’ve never seen such a bunch of doom and gloom mongers.

      I think we’ll be back to normal in 18 months personally.

      • TripRep says:

        14 Apr14 April 13:56

        Define “normal” ?

        Job security, debts, grief will all play a part for future consumer appetite.

        • Lady London says:

          14 Apr14 April 20:12

          you forgot taxes…. big ones to pay for all of this

    • Lady London says:

      14 Apr14 April 19:58

      +1. But you know what? Our ‘national airline’ will be one of the last great survivors.

      If only, if only they would take this opportunity to steam clean every little bit of every plane and have an actual cleanliness regime going forward – now that would cheer me up.

  • memesweeper says:

    14 Apr14 April 06:54

    Interesting question…

    – some countries will try and get back to normal for inbound and outbound travel fast — my hunch is the UK and US will be among them. These will be the countries where coronavirus exposure has exceeded 50% of the population already and ‘importing’ more won’t make any odds.

    – some countries will proactively try and keep their populations generally virus free until there’s a
    vaccine or global spread is negligible. Singapore and New Zealand spring to mind as possibles here. Expect controls that make tourism impossible to those destinations for a year perhaps.

    A vaccine + health certificate fixes everything.

    I am an Armchair Epidemiologist: https://twitter.com/markhumphries/status/1248214342618628096?s=20

    • Freddy says:

      14 Apr14 April 08:10

      I’d say at least 12 months for things to return to relative normal much to the disagreement for my wife who seems to get upset when I spout my theory

    • TGLoyalty says:

      14 Apr14 April 08:46

      Vaccines take years of testing in multiple phases of different amounts of people.

      I won’t be injecting myself that’s been tested for a fraction of that time.

      Europe and USA will re open Asia might be off the cards for a few years.

      • Sunguy says:

        14 Apr14 April 10:51

        Heres the thing (according to my wife who is a Virologist)…..drug companies are the problem….they *really* don’t like making cures and vaccines – “one and done” doesn’t make money – there is no ongoing need. They by far prefer to make things that need “booster” treatments(which can take longer to engineer and test)……everything else is for governments/universities and research institutions to work on…..and of course there is that many things to work on, too little money, time and people to test that it takes years and years and more years for something stable to be achieved.

        Coronavirus is a once-in-a-generation (we hope!) event – the drug company that is first to come up with an actual cure and safe vaccination will likely make zero money from it (they will be compelled to release the manufacture details by various governments) – but what it does give them is something money cannot buy – advertising on a global scale – the “saviour” of the people…..and economies…so, all these big-Pharma (mainly US based) labs are switching gear and pushing their R&D into Covid-19…..

        I would not be surprised if we had a genuine – fully engineered – fully working, safe and fully tested vaccine by the end of the year or very early next year at the very latest.

        • Lady London says:

          14 Apr14 April 20:31

          @sunguy one of my gigs was working for the chairman/owner of a medium-large pharmaceutical company and I can confirm what you say.

          Pharmas said exactly the same thing about AIDS – no one wanted to cure it as the cure would immediately be appropriated by governments for zero. I’m not sure that ended?

          Has your wife an idea about what’s different about CV that we don’t understand? still haven’t got a vaccine for it in cats after many years trying. Wonder what the similarity is with malaria (which also is not cured once acquired?)

    • Kev 85 says:

      14 Apr14 April 12:04

      “ These will be the countries where coronavirus exposure has exceeded 50% of the population already”

      Has it? (UK and US)

    • pauldb says:

      14 Apr14 April 12:12

      I agree that importing more cases across Europe for example won’t make much difference. But why do you think exposure is any where near 50%. Even in Italy, test positivity is less than 10% and that is amongst the sick and at-risk.

      • Kev 85 says:

        14 Apr14 April 16:37

        So the 50% was a made up number then?

      • memesweeper says:

        14 Apr14 April 20:57

        No, was mentioned in a paper from the Oxford academics. They are now gathering evidence.

      • memesweeper says:

        14 Apr14 April 20:59

        Can’t seem to link to it but google ‘ Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study’ , follow the the link to the FT

  • ChrisBCN says:

    14 Apr14 April 08:51

    I’m still sticking to my 12-18 month timeline for travel to return to normal in those countries that are in the midst of outbreaks now (most of Europe, USA etc).

    • ChrisWKR says:

      14 Apr14 April 19:21

      You could be right.

  • Kev 85 says:

    14 Apr14 April 09:25

    “ OK, so who here is still confidently operating on the basis that things are going to spring ‘back to normal’ in a couple of months?”

    No idea about 18 months down the line as has been discussed as I’m not a medical expert/have no interest in being an armchair epidemiologist etc but it should be pretty clear to anyone things won’t spring back to normal in a couple of months. Best not to think to far ahead/worry about what will happen beyond the next few weeks.

  • Colin MacKinnon says:

    14 Apr14 April 09:55

    Hi Aeronaut,

    I am still operating “normally” in the hope things return to normal in a few months. But part of that is to prepare for the worst.

    So we are cutting the grass at Strathaven Airfield, where I live (did think of leaving it for a few months and cutting it for silage), and have set ourselves a 100 jobs in a 100 days challenge on our Facebook page – partly to show we are still going to be in business, partly to show people what goes on “behind the scenes”.

    I am also carrying out the usual cull of credit cards: perhaps being a bit tougher than usual since if the worst happens then I want to make things simpler for my executors! So Monese has bit the dust, and Virgin is earmarked for closure (have never flown on a Virgin aircraft since c1986 – movie was A Chorus Line! Very trendy then – not!)

    Personal thoughts. No aircraft will be flying from our airfield for a few months (leisure and recreational flights). Nothing from our flying school until 2021.

    Our long winter holiday in January. Not happening – although, to tell the truth, after this year’s month in Africa we did get a bit fed up with government and government agencies sticking the iron fist out for cash at every corner!

    Family in the USA will have to visit us: if we can’t get Covid insurance, we ain’t going there!

  • Dave says:

    14 Apr14 April 10:12

    Maybe not normal, but by end of July things will pick up. Too many doomsayers and crystal ball owners, and second wave likely to be far more benign and talk of more infection in China is more from repatriation of infected chinese than anything else.
    I’m no more qualified to comment than anyone else in the thread!

    • Kev 85 says:

      14 Apr14 April 10:20

      “Too many crystal ball owners”

      “ second wave likely to be far more benign and talk of more infection in China is more from repatriation of infected chinese than anything else.”

      😂

      • Dave says:

        14 Apr14 April 11:57

        I’m one of them 😅 😵

• Gavin says:

  14 Apr14 April 04:05

  Not me, I’m waiting for BA to cancel May flights to Seoul (all of April was pulled last week, it had been reduced from daily to every other day).

  I want my £1400 and 72k Avios back!

  • Trev says:

    14 Apr14 April 04:39

    I cancelled with full refund of cash and points on Sat for LHR -O RD flight on May 22. It is still possible to book tickets for that departure! I explained that a voucher was no good as we couldn’t return by the 12 month deadline dictated by the departure day. Avios back in 10mins. Cash “7-10 days”. We shall see.

    • Si says:

      14 Apr14 April 06:07

      I’m still waiting for £1,300 after 5 weeks. I’ve spoken to BA a couple times and they’ve returned the avios and companion voucher (with extension) no probs, but said it’s can take up to 6 weeks now to receive your money back due to the back–log

      • Waribai says:

        14 Apr14 April 06:27

        Contact barefundhelper on flyertalk. They deal with avios bookings which have been cancelled but the cash is slow to reappear. The money will be back pronto….

        • Waribai says:

          14 Apr14 April 06:50

          I had been waiting a while for my cash. Contacted barefundhelper on Saturday. My cash was returned today….

    • Trevor Gardiner says:

      14 Apr14 April 06:38

      Update. I received cash to my Amex card overnight so from the call on Sat, it took 3 days over a Bank Holiday. For me, fantastic service from BA.

  • Kev 85 says:

    14 Apr14 April 09:59

    “ Not me, I’m waiting for BA to cancel May flights to Seoul”

    This obviously doesn’t help you but South Korea will probably be one of the first countries to go back to normal for the local population, given the low number of deaths despite being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and the 5th most visited country by Chinese tourists. They’ve managed the virus very well.

• Vicky says:

  14 Apr14 April 07:30

  Can someone suggest a workaround, I had a 241 booking (triggered via BA PP card) and completed the outbound in Dec and inbound due in July. If I cancel now (my flight still operating) will I get the return portion of the voucher back or will it be forfeited? I want to move the return date to Jan now with all this virus situation. Any help will be much appreciated.

  I had F class from DXB. Also, my voucher if unused would have been valid till July 2021.

  • Charlieface says:

    14 Apr14 April 14:09

    Most likely forfeited. You’re best asking for a direct re-route or date change

• JonL says:

  14 Apr14 April 08:00

  I have a trip booked to the USA at the end of July. Outbound on BA to the West Coast and return on AA from NYC. I booked on BA. AA have canceled the return flight so I believe I can request a full refund.
  However, I’m still holding out hope that the situation will change in 3 months and this trip could happen. I know it’s unlikely, but the chances aren’t 0%, yet. Is there any limit to how long I can procrastinate before asking for a refund? I don’t want to lose that option, but I prefer to make a decision later when we all have more information.

  • Anna says:

    14 Apr14 April 08:15

    You’ve got a couple of months yet (unless BA cancel the other flight in the meantime), but what you should really be investigating is whether your travel insurance will cover you for the trip.

    • JonL says:

      14 Apr14 April 08:27

      Distinguishing between AA and BA in my post was probably unnesssary. It is a single reservation on BA ticket stock. Sorry for the confusion there.
      So I can just wait? That fact that there has been a cancellationg gives me a free option with no time constraint to refund or choose another return flight?

• JAc says:

  14 Apr14 April 08:14

  I had booked tickets with Emirates to Dubai mid march as i thought it would be nicer spending spring in Dubai then in a lockdown in London but then Dubai went in lockdown (beaches, swimming pools closed) so I cancelled my flight and asked for a refund.
  Yesterday i got an email from Emirates with a new proposal, i can keep my ticket for a future date within the next 24 months to book at any flight at no extra cost.Do i understand correctly that if I accept this option, i can use my reasonable priced tickets to travel for example over Xmas at no extra cost? In this case it seems keeping the tickets might be better than asking for a refund? Anybody else who got this offer and understands the same way?

  • Anna says:

    14 Apr14 April 08:18

    How much easier would it have been if BA had just done this! I think you need to read any Ts and Cs connected with this offer and request them in writing. Also how likely are flights to sell out – you are always going to be dependent on seat availability?

  • Rob says:

    14 Apr14 April 08:31

    Need to see the exact wording ….

    • jac says:

      14 Apr14 April 09:47

      The exact wording :

      You can choose to keep your ticket and we’ll extend its validity to 24 months from the date of your original booking. The fare amount you paid for your original booking will be accepted for any flight to the same destination/region* at any time with no fees during this period.

      You don’t have to call us if you have a cancelled booking. We’ve now extended the validity of your ticket for up to 24 months so you can just call us to reschedule your flight whenever you’re ready to travel again.

      *The Emirates regions are: Africa, Australasia, Europe, the Far East, the Gulf, Middle East and Iran, Indian Ocean Islands, North America, South America, West Asia

      • jac says:

        14 Apr14 April 09:53

        so not only does my ticket could be used during peak times but I could even change origin and /or destination (so if you would have (buy?) a Oslo / Stockholm = > Bangkok ticket you could swap it for a London => Jakarta, Manila flight)). In my case I could depart from another European airport but would have to fly to the Middle East or Iran so could not really benefit from the destination change as swapping Dubai for Teheran or Baghdad is not really attractive)

        • Baber Rasheed says:

          14 Apr14 April 14:33

          baghdad and tehran are absolutely beautiful places! Really recommend!

      • Rob says:

        14 Apr14 April 10:32

        Hmmm. I agree, it does SEEM to say that – which is a good result. It would have been better if they had been more explicit about it. When it says ‘fare accepted’ you COULD read it as being ‘accepted TOWARDS’ or ‘accepted AS FULL PAYMENT FOR’ which of course are different things.

        • Sam G says:

          14 Apr14 April 10:38

          My understanding is this is correct – you would only have to pay any tax difference when you rebook

          Very smart offer by Emirates to keep funds in their account – most of the voucher offers carry little to no upside for the consumer vs getting cash back

        • Lady London says:

          14 Apr14 April 20:43

          @Sam G you have a good point. Do you think it’s even worse perhaps…could most people getting a voucher on, say, BA not realize the voucher they get won’t pay the same trip again as they will be subject to price changes,?

• Nick says:

  14 Apr14 April 08:30

  I paid £575 plat fee on 29 Feb 2020.
  Cancelled yesterday (13 April), effective immediately.

  Could someone please confirm the refund due?

  • fivebobbill says:

    14 Apr14 April 08:46

    Hope you’re not in a hurry for it Nick, I’ve been waiting for my refund since I cancelled on 4th April!
    Asked for it to be credited to my BAPP card, but it’s still sitting in my Amex account this morning.
    Need to call them again today, for the third time…

    • Nick says:

      14 Apr14 April 08:49

      I got it immediately. It’s sitting as a statement credit this morning. But reckon I was short changed by £20 :-).

      Hence asking for some math boffs to calculate?

      • xcalx says:

        14 Apr14 April 09:43

        No bofin .. I get it to £505.68 refund counting first and last day.

        • nick says:

          14 Apr14 April 10:04

          That’s what i calculated too. I contacted Amex.

          Reason is the refund is calculated from: card anniversary date (and not the date the fee appear on statement)

      • Louie says:

        14 Apr14 April 09:50

        The refund is calculated to the day of cancellation from the anniversary of when you took out the card – NOT the date on which the charge hit your account. I cancelled my card on 8 April, the fee having been charged on 3 April. The refund was based on the card anniversary having been 7 March. Sharp practice by Amex; there’s no reason at all why they could not have charged the (online) account on 7 March but they only ever charge the card on the next statement date.

        • Youllnever says:

          14 Apr14 April 13:28

          I’m guessing this applies to downgrades as well? Recently downgraded from BAPP to BA but am still waiting on the refund.

  • TGLoyalty says:

    14 Apr14 April 08:51

    I would just trust Amex to issue the correct refund.

    It could be the amount in days remaining (c£500) or the amount in full months remaining (£480)

    Personally I’d expect £480 and be happy if I got £500.

• Paul irving says:

  14 Apr14 April 08:31

  I created a 6 minute video review of the conrad Maldives as a diamond member using points for 10 Days. https://youtu.be/OenkqG33zLk

  • memesweeper says:

    14 Apr14 April 22:31

    Thanks for posting Paul … something to keep saving up for!

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